Strauss-Howe generational theory – a theory of social change, created by American authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, according to which social mood in modernized societies moves in cycles lasting 80-100 years. Before the current one, similar generational theories have been worked out by Italian historian Giuseppe Ferrari and French lexicographer Paul-Emile Littré in the 19th century.
The theory has been described as pseudoscientific by many historians, but others see it as a valuable approximation of real historical developments. It has been especially influential in pop-culture and marketing. It also has some sinister fans, like Steve Bannon.
A few flaws prevent Strauss-Howe theory from being fully accepted as scientific. One is Americanocentrism, as the authors have little to say about other nations. Another is stereotyping, with the claim that almost everybody to some degree acts according to their generational archetype. Finally, some major historical events don't fit into the proposed cycle, including World War One.
The saeculum[]
The saeculum is a proposed cycle driven by human life stages. Its length is roughly equivalent to a natural human lifespan. It is divided into four phases or „turnings”, each lasting 20 years or more. The current saeculum, which has started in 1945, is called the "Millennial Saeculum" and the previous one was "Great Power Saeculum".
High (1T) is a period after a large crisis, when security is valued above all and individuality is suppressed. Society is focused on material progress while culture is bland and spirituality is neglected. There is a powerful establishment, while alternative subcultures are taking shape underground. The last 1T in America was from 1945 to mid 1960s.
Awakening (2T) is a period of romantic rebellion of youth against the establishment. New zealous varieties of religion and spirituality emerge, which can be nature-focused, puritannical or bohemian, but almost always attack the family. There is also a wave of artistic innovations. The last 2T in America was the Counterculture movement in the late 1960s and 70s.
Unravelling (3T) is a period of colourful culture and strong individualism, often mixed with cynicism and hedonism. Idealism is cultivated in personal life, but politics is mostly focused on business. Crime is rampant. The last 3T in America was in the 1980s to mid 2000s.
Crisis (4T) is a period when 3T disorder becomes intolerable. There is a growing demand for restored social order (known as „regeneracy”). Populist and authoritarian politicians become popular. Large wars are most likely in this period. This is the current phase of the cycle, according to Strauss and Howe it has begun in 2008 with the Great Financial Crisis. The previous 4T was the Great Depression and World War Two.
Sometimes Crises and Awakenings are both called "social moments".
The generational archetypes[]
A diagram of generational archetypes
The theory claims that people develop a specific mindset while growing up in a certain „turning”. These types are the basis of dividing people into generations, and don't always match the generations known from the popular media.
Artist generations come of age during a High. They are described as focused on either professional excellence, or on imaginative or creative pursuits, while avoiding controversial topics and often acting as peacemakers between people representing different worldviews. In their middle age they develop an anarchic streak. The Silent generation is an example, as is the Homelander generation (corresponding more or less to mainstream media's "generation Alpha")
Prophet generations come of age during an Awakening. They are described as having strong inner-driven sense of moral values and a strong need for spirituality. As mature adults they develop a charismatic leadership style, which can also have an authoritarian and moralistic character. Many of them enjoy making controversial, polarizing statements. An important role Prophet individuals can fulfill as elders is the "grey champion", or a visionary calling for social change and inspiring younger people. The latest Prophet generation are the Boomers.
Nomad generations come of age during an Unravelling. They are described as independent, practical and fun-loving, though often fond of shocking and vulgar entertainment. Many Nomads can also exhibit a cynical mindset. Having been neglected by their Artist parents, they develop an overprotective parenting style. The latest example is generation X.
Civic (Hero) generations come of age during a Crisis. They are described as team-working, optimistic and rational, though also unemotional and conformist. Later in life they value above all the family and domestic life. The examples given by Strauss and Howe are the G.I.s (WW2 veteran generation) and the Millennials (including the mainstream media's "generation Z")
Sometimes Civics and Prophets are considered "dominant" generations, while Artists and Nomads are considered "recessive" generations.
Strauss-Howe theory beyond America[]
Some other countries also appear to work according to S&H cycle. Europe is roughly on the same cycle as the USA. The growth of totalitarian governments such as Bolshevik Russia and Nazi Germany in the 1920s-30s would correspond to a Crisis. In the 1950s social-democratic countries of Western Europe and many countries of the post-Stalinist Eastern Bloc would fit the description of a High even better than America at the same time. Then Europe also went through a countercultural rebellion culminating in 1968, led by Silents and Boomers. Poland's Solidarity movement which brought the end of Soviet domination involved the same generations, but it showed both 2T and 4T characteristics. Most European countries experienced a phase of ultra-liberal capitalism in the 1990s. The Eurozone crisis of the late 2000s and early 2010, followed by rise of populist nationalism after 2015, look like another Crisis.
The Middle East appears to have a different schedule, but the same rhythm. The rise of left-nationalist regimes in the 1950s-60s would be a Crisis, while the growth of Islamic fundamentalism in the 2000s would be an Awakening.
Pre-modern rural and especially tribal societies in general don't go through a generational cycle. Often young men play a Civic-like warrior role, but later move on to a Prophet-like elder role.
Predictions[]
Using Strauss-Howe theory it is possible to make testable predictions about the future. The authors boast having predicted a large crisis around 2020. Other claims didn't hold water, e.g. Millennials didn't become a male-focused and socially conservative generation like the G.I.s
So, if social changes play out according to the theory:
2030-50 should be a High. Politics will be dominated by technocratic centre-leftists after the wave of right-wing populism is over. Remaining populist governments will be increasingly isolated, like Franco's Spain in the post-WW2 period. There will be a consensus on major issues like curbing climate change, restraining immigration and allowing gay marriage and recreational marijuana. There could be a strong focus on artificial intelligence and possibly space exploration, without much interest in high culture and spirituality. Society could be very conformist, as social media crowds reach the peak of influence. Children will likely be raised mostly offline, since the awareness of negative impact of too much screen time is already growing in the 2020s.
2050-70 should be an Awakening. The young Prophet generation, who can be called New Romantics, will rebel against the digital establishment. As Millennials are tech-obsessed and indulged, New Romantics could go in the opposite direction, giving the 2T a luddite and ascetic form. Teenagers yearning for more authentic and organic experiences could grow to revile smartphones, social media, pornography and video games. They could also condemn their parents for not being self-critical and focusing too much on asserting their rights in society. Such approach could lead to a move away from political activism and an enthusiasm for contemplative life. On the other hand, acts of violence against digital infrastructure are also possible.
It is highly speculative to go beyond that. One cannot say much about the Unravelling in the 2070s without knowing the outcome of the Awakening. Colonization of Mars might be underway by this time, creating a new dangerous frontier for new Nomads.
Eventually, if biotechnological life extension becomes reality, this could either make the generational cycle slower or cause it to disappear altogether as life stages become less distinct from each other.
On the other hand, some developments would falsify Strauss-Howe generational theory. Especially, if the current 4T climate of widespread polarization, populism and media panic does not abate, and teenagers stay fixated on online pop-culture well into the 2030s, such a scenario won't fit into the S&H paradigm.
External links[]
Timeline of recent generations and turnings in the United States