The Persian Gulf crisis was a period of heightened political tensions between the United States and Iran beginning with an alleged Iranian attack on four Norwegian, Saudi Arabian, and Emirati merchant ships on 12 May 2019. The United States deployed a carrier strike group, 4 B-52 bombers, and 2,500 more troops to the Persian Gulf, and the crisis escalated as the USA assembled a multinational task force to protect international shipping in the Gulf from Iran and its allies. In January 2020, the conflict escalated when Iranian-backed Shia paramilitaries in Iraq attacked the US embassy in Baghdad in response to US airstrikes retaliating against the Kata'ib Hezbollah group for a rocket attack; the US responded to the embassy attack by killing Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in an airstrike near Baghdad International Airport. In October 2023, the focus of the conflict shifted to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden due to the Israel-Hamas War and the onset of the Red Sea crisis.
Background[]
As the result of the 2016 presidential election in the United States, the divisive Republican candidate Donald Trump won a highly controversial election in which Russia and, allegedly, China meddled in the election to sabotage Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Trump, unlike his Democrat predecessor Barack Obama, was opposed to a nuclear deal with Iran, and Trump accused the deal of opening the door for a nuclear holocaust. In July 2017, he placed sanctions on Iran, Russia, and North Korea, and, in May 2018, he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. In late July 2018, in response to the US sanctions and Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz to US traffic. At the same time, Trump began plotting to assist Iranian opposition groups against the government, which he openly accused of sponsoring terrorism. On 13 August 2018, Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei ended direct talks with the United States, and Iran resumed its nuclear program. In April 2019, the US government - against the advice of the CIA - designated Iran's IRGC armed forces as a terrorist group, a major insult to the Iranian government.
Crisis[]
In May 2019, the United States began deploying more military assets to the Persian Gulf after receiving word of an Iranian plan to use its proxies to hinder oil shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians also began to place missiles on dhows to threaten the US Navy in the region. On 5 May 2019, National Security Advisor John Bolton announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and four B-52s to the Middle East after Israeli intelligence warned the US of Iranian plans to attack US forces in the region.
The Iranian drone's footage of the US aircraft carrier
On 12 May 2019, four commercial ships, including two Saudi Aramco oil tankers, were torpedoed near the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, and the United Arab Emirates and the United States blamed Iran or its proxies for the attack. On 13 May, US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan planned to send 120,000 more US troops to the Middle East if Iran took further action against US assets. On 15 May, the US evacuated all non-emergency staff from the US embassy in Baghdad. On 24 May, five days after a rocket landed near the US embassy in Baghdad, 900 fresh troops were sent to the Middle East. On 17 June, 1,000 more troops were sent to the Middle East after two oil tankers were attacked by Iranian limpet mines. On 20 June, the Iranian IRGC shot down a US drone, which it claimed violated Iranian airspace. The US argued that it was over international waters, and Trump ordered a retaliatory strike that same day. He decided to halt the operation after he was warned that as many as 150 Iranians could be killed, and his reversal was criticized by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and by Bolton. On 22 June, however, he approved cyber attacks on IRGC rocket and missile control systems, and, on 25 June, Iran cut off diplomatic relations with the USA. On 28 June, the US deployed 12 F-22 Raptor jets to Qatar to defend American forces and interests. On 18 July 2019, the USS Boxer downed an Iranian drone by electronically jamming it, causing renewed tensions. Just a day later, two British oil tankers were seized by Iranian ships, with the Liberian-flagged tanker Mesdar being allowed to continue on and the British-flagged Stena Impero being captured. On 22 July 2019, the Iranian government arrested 17 alleged CIA spies. On 31 July, the US Department of the Treasury enacted sanctions against Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. On 4 August, the Iranians seized another tanker, an Iraqi one, after accusing it of smuggling fuel for the Arab nations.
On 14 September 2019, the crisis escalated when an unmarked drone attacked Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq-Khurais, disrupting ARAMCO oil exports by 5.7 million barrels a day, causing the Saudi stock market and oil exports to plummet, and leading to the USA beginning to use its oil reserves. A day later, both Iran and the United States stated that they were ready for war, with the USA stating that it was "locked and loaded" and ready to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in the war on terrorism, while Iran said that it was ready for war after Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for backing the Houthis.
Conflict turns hot[]
On 27 December 2019, the situation escalated when the Iranian-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah paramilitary group in Iraq fired 30 rockets at the K-1 Air Base in Kirkuk, killing a US civilian contractor and injuring 4 US servicemen and 2 Iraqi security personnel. At 11:00 AM on 29 December, the US retaliated with airstrikes against Kata'ib Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria, killing at least 25 militia fighters and wounding 55; among the dead were 4 militia leaders. Iraq called the airstrikes a "stab in the back", Iran called them "terrorism", and Kata'ib Hezbollah swore revenge; on 31 December, pro-Kata'ib Hezbollah protesters stormed the US embassy in Baghdad. The PMF leadership called off the attack after claiming that the USA had received their message.
Killing of Soleimani[]
However, the attack - which top US officials claimed was backed and armed by Iran - provoked the USA into bombing a convoy carrying Iranian Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani and PMF commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at the Baghdad International Airport early on 3 January 2020, killing the two major leaders. The attack killed eight people, with the IRGC and PMF calling them "martyrs". Senior IRGC officer Mohsen Rezaee promised "vigorous revenge against America" for Soleimani's assassination, and Iranian state television cut all broadcasts and replaced them with prayers for Soleimani. Later that day, the US deployed 3,000 more troops to the Middle East to protect its embassies, and several US cities were placed on high alert due to fears of Iranian retaliation. A day later, Trump threatened to bomb 52 (the number of hostages taken during the Iran hostage crisis) Iranian targets, including cultural sites, if Iran retaliated for Soleimani's killing.
Iranian retaliation[]
On 7 January 2020, Qasem Soleimani was buried in a funeral attended in the largest public funeral in Iran since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989; 56 people died and 213 were injured during a stampede at the funeral in Kerman. That same day, the Islamic Consultative Assembly formally designated the US Department of Defense as a terrorist organization, rendering all US Armed Forces and Pentagon personnel "terrorists" in the eyes of the Iranian government. Amid rising tensions, Germany and Canada began to withdraw their forces from Iraq, preparing for an escalation.
The rocket strike
At 6:54 PM ET, reports surfaced that ten rockets hit the US-occupied al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq, and the IRGC claimed responsibility, warning the US of more "crushing responses in cases of new aggression". Major-General Mortada Qurbani confirmed that Iran was in a "high state of alert to destroy (US) bases in the region and humiliate (the US)." Both Trump and the leaders of the US intelligence community were briefed on the attack, and Dow futures fell more than 250 points following the rocket attack. The attack wounded 110 US personnel, who suffered from traumatic brain injury, but initial reports claimed that not a single US soldier was harmed, leading to some analysts suggesting that Iran did not intend to kill anyone. On 8 January, however, the IRGC shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 over Tehran after mistaking it for a retaliatory US cruise missile, killing all 176 people on board. This shootdown fuelled anti-government protests in Tehran, distracting the Iranian government from the diplomatic crisis with the US. In the following months, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic into Iran also distracted the Iranian government from the Persian Gulf crisis.
On 11 and 14 March 2020, however, Kata'ib Hezbollah resumed its rocket campaign, attacking the al-Taji Camp. The first attack killed two US soldiers and one British soldier and wounded 14 personnel; the second attack wounded 5 Coalition soldiers and 2 Iraqi soldiers. On 11 and 13 March, the US retaliated with airstrikes; the second air raid targeted Karbala International Airport, killing 3 Iraqi soldiers, 2 policemen, and 1 civilian, while 11 Iraqi soldiers and 5 PMF fighters were wounded. Once again, the Iraqi government blamed the US for escalating the situation. On 11 June 2020, the United States and Iraq began negotiations (virtually, due to the COVID-19 pandemic) to discuss the withdrawal of US troops and countering Iranian influence. In July, Israel stealthily attacked several Iranian military and nuclear facilities, causing a series of mysterious explosions which put the Iranian air defense on high alert. On 13 August 2020, the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel, followed by Bahrain on 9 September. In response, on 12 September, the IRGC threatened Bahrain with harsh revenge. That same month, Iranian front groups in Iraq such as the Avenger Brigades, Sariya Qassem al-Jibareen, the Zulfiqar Forces, and the People of the Cave claimed responsibility for several IED and rocket attacks on Coalition targets in Iraq. On 21 September, Bahrain foiled a terrorist plot by the al-Ashtar Brigades (who were operating under the alias of the "Qasem Soleimani Brigade"), arresting nine members, while another nine fled to Iran. On 23 September, in a speech before the United Nations, King Salman of Saudi Arabia called for a "comprehensive and firm" response to Iran's nuclear program, accusing Iran of producing "chaos, extremism, and sectarianism."
Map of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East, 2021
In November 2020, the situation once again escalated when Israeli-backed MEK agents assassinated the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi in Tehran to derail Iran's nuclear program. That same month, IRGC commander Muslim Shahdan was killed in a drone strike in eastern Syria while overseeing the Iranian-backed militia groups along the Syria-Iraq border. On 22 January 2021, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Trump with revenge for Soleimani's death the year earlier, leading to Twitter suspending his account. On 15 February 2021, the US airbase at Erbil came under rocket fire from Iranian-backed militia groups, resulting in the USA launching retaliatory airstrikes on 25 February. On 10 May, a US Coast Guard patrol boat fired 30 warning shots at 13 IRGC fast attack craft which had been harassing six US Navy warships escorting the submarine USS Georgia. On 18 June, as part of America's gradual disengagement from the Middle East, President Joe Biden withdrew eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq, and hundreds of US troops were also withdrawn in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Iran. On 28 June, however, Biden ordered another round of retaliatory airstrikes against Iran-backed militia groups in eastern Syria in response to continued rocket attacks on US personnel and installations. In July 2021, missile attacks on US installations in Iraq resumed, and two personnel were injured in another Iranian-sanctioned rocket attack on al-Asad Airbase in Iraq on 7 July. On 13 July 2021, Iranian intelligence agents Alireza Shavaroghi Farahani, Mahmoud Khazein, Omid Noori, and Kiya Sadeghi were charged by an American court with conspiring to kidnap the dissident journalist Masih Alinejad from Brooklyn, New York City. On 30 July, tensions once again escalated after a British and Romanian crew member were killed in a suicide drone attack on an Israeli oil tanker off the coast of Oman. On 1 August 2021, the British government formally accused Iran of responsibility for the attack, and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that Britain and its allies were preparing a coordinated response to Iran's attack. Before this could happen, on 3 August 2021, between 8 and 9 armed invididuals - suspected by the British government of being Iranians or their proxies - boarded the Panama-flagged asphalt carrier Asphalt Princess 61 miles off Fujairah. At 1:32 AM on 4 August, the boarders left the vessel after Iran announced that it was providing assistance for merchant ships in the area, defusing the crisis. The crisis calmed down for several months, but, on 26 October 2021, Iranian fuel stations and road electronic billboards were hit by a cyberattack.
On 11 December 2021, the crisis escalated again when Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced that he had instructed the Israel Defense Forces to prepare military options for potential use against Iran due to the JCPOA's lack of progress. On 12 March 2022, as negotiations to return to the JCPOA nuclear deal stalled in Vienna due to disagreements over the lifting of US sanctions, Iran launched twelve ballistic missiles at the Iraqi city of Erbil, targeting the US consulate and Erbil International Airport. These missiles, launched from Khasabad in East Azerbaijan, did not cause any casualties, but several missiles hit the US consulate building.
In May 2023, destabilizing actions from Iran in the Persian Gulf, including the continued harassment of merchant ships, resulted in the US bolstering its forces in the Middle East. On 5 July 2023, an Iranian vessel approached the Richmond Voyager oil tanker, firing on the ship and hitting the vessel near the crew's living spaces. On 17 July 2023, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, along with the USS Thomas Hudner, deployed to the Middle East in response to the Iranians' continued attacks on merchant vessels. On 20 July, the US deployed a 2,000-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit and an amphibious-ready group to the region.
On 4 August 2023, the United States announced that US Marines would be deployed to guard commerical ships in the Persian Gulf to deter further Iranian attacks. Marines in the region underwent training for two weeks, and ships had the right to request protection from the Marine Corps, which would deploy 20 Marines to each ship, with the right of self-defense; while this move was meant to prevent further Iranian attacks, it also risked escalating the conflict should Iranian and American soldiers exchange fire. On 5 August, Iran responded by equipping its IRGC Navy with drones and 600-mile range missiles, with Iranian spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi saying that the Gulf's countries were "capable of ensuring Persian Gulf security" themselves and saying that America had no business in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Indian Ocean.
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas War in October 2023, the focus of the Iran-US proxy war shifted to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as Iran and its Houthi proxies focused on attacking international shipping bound for Israel.