Aya Yamamoto (1967-) was a Japanese CDP politician who served in the House of Representatives from 20 March 2023 to 29 November 2027 and Prime Minister of Japan from 29 November 2027, succeeding Shigeru Fuku.
Biography[]
Aya Yamamoto was born in Chiba, Chiba Prefecture, Japan in 1967. She was a humanities professor at Sophia University before entering politics with the CDP due to her liberal-reformist views. She led her party into the 2023 elections, after which she became one of Japan's most prominent opposition leaders. The political scandals and economic decline Japan experienced during Shigeru Fuku's LDP government boosted public support to the CDP, leading to its victory at the 2027 elections. Yamamoto's party placed in first with 26.19% of the vote and 10/40 seats, followed by Komeito with 15.77% and 6/40 seats, the Conservative Party of Japan with 13.16% and 5/40 seats, the LDP with 11.36% and 5/40 seats, Reiwa Shinsengumi with 9.84% and 4/40 seats, the JCP with 9.59% and 4/40 seats, Nippon Ishin no Kai with 6.83% and 3/40 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People with 6.55% and 3/40 seats.
Premiership[]
Yamamoto inherited a budget deficit of ¥9 million, with a weekly improvement of ¥5 million. The House voted 23-11 to keep mandatory military service, 19-5 to keep mandatory vaccinations, 19-12 against bank secrecy, 20-8 to keep the pollution tax, 16-13 to keep the junk food tax, 19-9 to introduce an air pollution monitor, 29-2 to increase the number of parliamentary seats from 40 to 70, 17-14 to keep the consumption tax, 24-11 against universal basic income, 24-3 for a travel visa program, 18-12 to keep the bank tax, 15-12 for paid maternity leave, 17-15 against an animal testing ban, 15-12 for a copyright law, 19-11 for a waste tax, 20-6 against an immigration ban, 19-14 against a tourist tax, 22-7 to ban artificial intelligence, and 21-14 to abolish the carbon tax.
By the turn of 2029, the CDP had failed to make progress in winning over new voters, as Yamamoto's reluctance to back tax cuts and caution about first building a strong economy caused free-market voters to criticize Japan's many taxes. Likewise, left-wing voters grew dissatisfied with the slow pace of program rollouts. In January 2029, fundraising records showed the CDP in the lead with ¥172 million, followed by Komeito with ¥123 million, the Conservative Party with ¥95 million, Shinsengumi with ¥87 million, the JCP with ¥82 million, the LDP with ¥75 million, NIK with ¥56 million, and the DPFP with ¥54 million. Only the JCP and LDP trended upwards, reflecting left-wing and right-wing dissatisfaction with Yamamoto's centrist pragmatism. 2029 saw the House vote 20-11 against UBI, and 19-14 to keep paid maternity leave.
On 9 April 2029, new elections were held. The CDP won 27.37% (+1.18%) and 19/40 seats, followed by Komeito with 15.97% (-.2%) and 11/70 seats, the Conservative Party with 12.6% (-.56%) and 9/70 seats, Shinsengumi with 10.9% (+1.06%) and 8/70 seats, the LDP with 10.23% (-1.13%) and 7/70 seats, the JCP with 9.51% (-.08%) and 7/70 seats, NIK with 7.02% (-.19%) and 5/70 seats, and the DPFP with 5.70% (-.85%) and 4/70 seats. The CDP narrowly increased its support among the electorate, but Komeito withstood previous CDP attack ads and cemented its status as the main opposition party. Among the CDP's new MPs were three newcomers in their 20s: the 20-year-old Nobumasa Tsune, the 21-year-old Toichiro Chudo, and the 23-year-old Kei Zaima. The Conservatives underperformed expectations as anti-establishment voters backed Komeito and Shinsengumi instead. The LDP continued its slow decline, as did the liberal-conservative DPFP. In the ensuing premiership election, Yamamoto won 16.2% of the vote to Komeito leader Wataru Nakagawa's 13.6%, placing first among the many party leaders and continuing her premiership.
Yamamoto embarked on a more ambitious policy offensive during her second term. The House voted 36-14 for a renewable energy subsidy, 29-27 against birthright citizenship, 48-9 for national holidays, 56-0 to strengthen the constitutional amendment threshold to 80%, 32-14 against an immigration ban, 32-25 to keep the consumption tax, 37-13 against protest prohibition, 40-21 to lower the number of parliament seats to 35 (failing to meet the constitutional threshold), 31-22 for a cultural subsidy, 35-14 for a tobacco tax,33-20 to keep prostitution legal, 28-27 to keep the junk food tax, 37-21 against a tourist tax, 33-22 against an airport tax, 33-24 to keep capital punishment, and 51-10 to join NATO. Meanwhile, Komeito lawmaker Kayo Yamada was imprisoned after a corruption scandal, while the corrupt JCP politician Naoki Sato defected to Nippon Ishin no Kai and Komeito lawmaker Satoshi Sugimura defected to Shinsengumi.
In February 2030, fundraising data showed the CDP as the country's leading party with ¥221 million in fundraising, followed by the Conservatives with ¥138 million, the LDP with ¥109 million, the JCP with ¥95 million, Komeito with ¥94 million, Shinsengumi with ¥64 million, NIK with ¥55 million, and the DPFP with ¥49 million. The conservatives surged in popularity due to Komeito's inability to present a strong opposition to the CDP, as well as part of a backlash against Yamamoto's liberal reforms. The CDP also broke the 30% support mark by 10 March 2030, causing Yamamoto to call a snap election to take advantage of her popularity.
Controversially, the calling of an immediate election cost the country ¥200 million, miring it in a ¥121 million budget deficit with a weekly decline of ¥1 million. The ensuing election saw the CDP with 30.13% (+2.76%) of the vote and 21/70 seats (+2 seats), while the Conservatives won 16.67% (+4.07%) and 12/70 seats (+3 seats), the LDP 12% (+1.77%) and 9/70 seats (+2 seats), the JCP 11.38% (+1.87%) and 8/70 seats (+1 seat), Komeito with 11% (-4.97%) and 8/70 seats (-3 seats), Shinsengumi with 7.42% (-3.48%) and 5/70 seats (-3 seats), NIK with 5.99% (-1.03%) and 4/70 seats (-1 seat), and the DPFP with 4.75% (-.95%) and 3/70 seats (-1 seat). The 2030 elections were marked by a conservative offensive at the polls. The Conservatives took advantage of popular outrage against the calling of such a costly election, while also winning general anti-establishment support. Likewise, the LDP began a slow recovery from its decline, with establishment-oriented conservatives seeking stability. The alt-left Shinsengumi collapsed in popularity, losing 3 seats as the Communists and Conservatives sapped their anti-establishment support. Both Nippon Ishin no Kai and the DPFP, the traditional center-right opposition, neared electoral oblivion as their voters either backed Yamamoto or chose more aggressively anti-CDP parties. The biggest loser of the election was the Komeito, whose anti-establishment reputation was ruined by its brief status as the systematic opposition, and whose non-Soka Gakkai voters moved into other conservative parties.
Yamamoto went on to win re-election with a plurality of 18.4% to Conservative leader Tasuku Kano's 15.4%, leaving her with the task of cleaning up her own economic mess and restoring Japan's economic progress.