The 2025 Shabelle offensive was an offensive mounted by the jihadist group al-Shabaab against the Somali capital of Mogadishu in 2025. The rebel group aimed to encircle Mogadishu and regain territory lost in the 2022 Somali government and African Union offensive.
On 20 February 2025, al-Shabaab launched coordinated attacks on multiple Somali National Army positions, temporarily seizing 15 towns before being repelled by government and allied militia forces. More than 130 al-Shabaab fighters were killed as they were expelled from their captured villages, and the group was judged to have failed in its Middle Shabelle offensive, even as it claimed to have taken four military bases. On 25 February, the Somali government and Hirshabelle forces succeeded in killing over 70 al-Shabaab militants. However, the group renewed its offensive in late February and targeted Balad, which was taken before being recaptured by government forces. On 3 March, the United States began to launch airstrikes against the jihadists to support the Somali government as Somali Army casualties mounted in Mogadishu's northern outskirts. On 5 March, the Ethiopian Air Force carried out its first aerial operation in Somalia since the 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. ENDF troops were deployed to the Somali border in preparation for operations in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.
As al-Shabaab's lightning offenses were repelled, the group refocused its efforts on gaining public trust while strengthening its territorial hold in central and southern Somalia, imitating the Taliban and Tahrir al-Sham. On 11 March, al-Shabaab attackers stormed the Cairo Hotel in Beledweyne and killed two traditional elders who were meeting with other elders and military officials. On 18 March, al-Shabaab also targeted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in an IED attack on his convoy near Villa Somalia. Over the next few months, the Somali National Army, allied militias, and international allies fought al-Shabaab to a stalemate, inflicting heavy losses even as al-Shabaab continued to overrun military bases and took 150 SNA soldiers from the Jareer Weyne clan prisoner on 16 June. On 7 July, al-Shabaab recaptured Moqokori in the Hiiraan region amid an uprising of Ma'awisley fighters.