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Presidential elections were held in the United States concurrently with the House of Representatives elections, multiple gubernatorial elections, and multiple senatorial elections. The Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris defeated incumbent Republican president Donald Trump and vice president Mike Pence. The election took place amidst a global pandemic, with unprecedented changes in how Americans cast their ballots. Voter turnout rose 7 percentage points from 2016, with a total of 66.6% of eligible voters going to the polls, the highest percentage since 1900. Biden won over 81 million votes, the most in American history.
In the crowded field of the Democratic primary, which saw the most candidates for any political party in modern American history, former vice president Joe Biden won. Biden chose junior California senator Kamala Harris to be his running mate. Meanwhile, incumbent Donald Trump and Mike Pence were easily renominated by the Republican Party. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen won the Libertarian nomination while Howie Hawkins pulled through to become the Green Party of the United States' nominee.
Central themes of the campaign were the ongoing global Covid-19 pandemic, the associated economic recession, civil unrest in reaction to the police killing of George Floyd, the Supreme Court, and the threat of climate change. Due to the ongoing pandemic, millions of Americans cast their ballot early or by mail. 38 states saw over half of all votes cast using these methods.
Many states saw delays in the counting of early and mail-in ballots. Many more Democrats voted by mail than Republicans; in turn, the delays in the counting of mail-in ballots postponed the projection of Biden as president-elect until the morning of November 7th.
Biden won an electoral college majority, taking 306 votes to Trump's 232. Biden won the popular vote by around seven million votes, a margin of 4%. Trump was the first president since George H.W. Bush to lose reelection. Biden flipped the three Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, central to Trump's 2016 victory. Biden also became the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992 and Arizona since 1996.
Trump and his allies repeatedly engaged in unprecedented aggressive rhetoric surrounding the results of the election. Republican attempts to subvert the election or overturn the election results included false claims of widespread voter fraud, influencing the vote count in swing states, and attempting to stop the count of mail-in ballots. Attorney General William Barr and officials from all states found no evidence of any irregularities or fraud. Federal agencies overseeing the election called it one of the most secure in American history. Despite this, the Trump campaign and other Republicans continued to peddle conspiracy theories and file numerous lawsuits in several states. Trump refused to cooperate with the Biden transition team, tried to coerce Republican officials and legislators to overturn election results, and pressured the Department of Justice to declare the election void and intervene. All these attempts and debunked claims resulted in Trump supporters attacking the U.S. Capitol Building in an attempt to stop the certification of the election results.
President Donald Trump outside the White House
Nominations[]
Democratic Party[]
| Joe Biden | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|
| For President | For Vice President |
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Republican Party[]
| Donald Trump | Mike Pence |
|---|---|
| For President | For Vice President |
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Election Issues[]
First Impeachment of Donald Trump[]
On July 25th, 2019, President Trump said that he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to congratulate him on his election victory in the country. Days later, an anonymous intelligence officer came forward with a complaint that the phone call contained more than just congratulations for an election victory. The whistleblower did not listen to the phone call themself but heard from many other officials that the call contained more than what Trump officially said it did. The call came days after Trump blocked $391 million in military aid to Ukraine. Critics said that he used this as a bargaining chip while Trump denied the allegation. The intelligence officer alleged the president used "the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country" in the 2020 presidential election, adding that White House officials were "deeply disturbed" by the call and had acted to "lock down" all details of it. [1]
As the controversy grew, Trump promised to release a full and unredacted script of the phone call. But the released version was known to not be the complete conversation. The document did show that Trump pressured Zelensky to investigate discredited corruption allegations against Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. This was thought to be because Biden was the Democratic frontrunner for the 2020 election. Trump and his allies suggested that Biden, as Barack Obama's vice president, encouraged the firing of Ukraine's top prosecutor in 2015 because he had been investigating an energy company that employed Hunter Biden.[1]At the time, by working closely with foreign-owned entities while his father was in the White House, Hunter Biden was criticised for leaving his father exposed to suggestions of a possible conflict of interest. But no evidence emerged that Biden did anything to intentionally benefit his son. The Democrats launched a formal inquiry into the Ukraine affair, and a number of officials were called to testify, including the US government's special envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, who turned over a trove of text messages and other communications. Conspiring with foreign governments to discredit political opponents is a serious crime. The acting ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, told the inquiry that Trump had made the release of the military aid conditional on Ukraine opening an investigation into the Bidens' dealings. He also said there was "an irregular, informal channel of US policymaking" in the country more generally. Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the European Union. He told Congress that he was working at the "express direction" of the president when pressure was put on Ukraine to investigate the Bidens.
Democratic leaders soon unveiled two charges of impeachment against President Trump, one for abuse of power and the other for obstruction of Congress. The House voted to impeach Trump, making him the third president to be impeached. A Senate vote requires a two-thirds majority to convict, so a guilty verdict was always unlikely given that the Republicans control the chamber. Trump was acquitted on both charges. The impeachment efforts led Trump to blame the rapid spread of the Covid-19 virus on the Democrats for "distracting" him from the pandemic.
Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic[]
Covid-19 cases in the United States, NYT
As the country battled with the Covid pandemic, it caused serious ripple effects across the nation and the globe. Unemployment tripled from 3.6% at the end of 2019 to 13% in the first quarter of 2020. During the last three quarters, the job market held a steady recovery with a 6.7% unemployment rate by the fourth quarter. While the unemployment rate began to fall as 2020 went on, the damage was done. Millions of American savings were diminished, and people lost homes and materials they used to have. The pandemic also stopped millions of Americans from going to work, leading to a severe reduction in public transportation ridership, which in turn reduced profits flowing in. The lockdowns that were implemented across many states of the U.S. also took a toll on every industry, especially service ones. Schools, stores, restaurants, bars, and hotels were shut down in an attempt to stop the spread. This caused many Americans to become isolated from family and social settings, leading to a sharp rise in mental illness cases.
During the early days of the pandemic in January and February, the country was grossly unprepared to handle an epidemic of this size. Testing for the virus was almost nonexistent, and many of the funds for disease prevention tools dried up over the years. Hospitals and healthcare workers were not ready for the massive spike in Covid cases that would happen in March until the end of the year. President Trump was accused of spreading disinformation and giving the public confusing messages on the pandemic. The United States also saw a critical shortage of life-saving ventilators, gowns, eye shields, masks, and body bags. Polls showed that many Americans that earned less than $40,000 a year planned to defer medical treatment due to the high costs of it. Trump's approval ratings began to slip during this time as many Americans strongly disapproved of his handling of the pandemic. By May, Trump began to pressure states to reopen in direct conflict with CDC advice that reopening too soon would cause more trouble. Trump also placed the blame for America having the highest number of covid cases in the world on the country's massive testing. The president also repeatedly does not wear a mask.
On the flipside, some Americans began to grow angry at the government lockdowns and mask mandates, seeing it as invasive government overreach. Some people even held protests in major cities to demonstrate against the lockdowns. Conspiracy theories about the pandemic and its treatments began to spread. Theories such as using the dangerous hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid or theories about where the virus originated from ran rampant. In October 2020, most staff at the White House, including President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and the press secretary, tested positive for Covid.
Trump's potential rejection of election results[]
During the campaign, Trump indicated in Twitter posts, interviews, and speeches that he may reject the results of the election if he lost. He also falsely claimed that the election would be rigged against him. He told Fox News anchor Chris Wallace when asked if he'll accept the results, "I have to see. No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no." Trump repeatedly said that the only way he would lose is if the election was rigged and even suggested delaying the election. Trump and his allies also attacked mail-in voting during the campaign, purporting false theories that the practice would lead to massive voter fraud. Many Republicans said they were committed to a peaceful transfer of power but denied criticizing Trump.
Supreme Court vacancy[]
With the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on September 18th, 2020, the nation's highest court was left with a vacancy. President Trump promised to swiftly fill the vacancy to bolster the court's conservative majority. Democrats, meanwhile, attacked Trump on this, saying it should be left up to the winner of the presidential election, which was only two months away. Trump nominated Amy Comey Barrett, and she was soon confirmed by the Senate. This created anger amongst Democrats who promised to pack the court if they won the election.
Results[]
158 million votes were cast in this election with 100 million of them being cast before Election Day by mail or early voting. This marks the highest percent turnout since the election of 1900. Biden received 81 million votes, the most for any presidential candidate in American history. This was the first time since 1948 that Democrats won the popular vote for four times in a row.
Analysis[]
The 2020 election saw numerous shifts across multiple different groups occur. Biden made gains with suburban voters compared to Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016. In 2016, 45% of voters backed Clinton, while Biden won suburban voters with 54% in 2020. The shift was also present with white voters. Trump won white voters by 16 points in 2016 (54%-38%). In 2020 Trump's margins narrowed to a 4 point win amongst the white electorate (51%-47%). Meanwhile, Trump made gains with rural voters, increasing his vote share from 58% in 2016 to 65% in 2020. While Biden held on to a majority of the Hispanic vote, Trump made gains with the group overall. Trump also did better amongst Hispanic voters without a college degree than those with one. Meanwhile Black voters remained heavily loyal to the Democratic Party with Biden taking 92% of their vote compared with Trump's 8%. The 2020 election also saw a narrowing of the gender gap compared with 2016 with Biden making inroads with male voters and Trump with female ones. Biden and Trump almost evenly split men compared with Trump's 11 point win with the group in 2016. Trump made gains with women this time winning 44% of their vote compared with his 2016 39%. Biden's vote share of women being almost the same as Clinton's (55% v.s. 54%). White non-college educated voters were crucial to Trump's victory in 2016 with a commanding 64% to 28% win over Clinton. In 2020 however, Biden improved on Clinton's numbers with the group, earning 36%.
By state[]
| State | Winner |
|---|---|
| Alabama | Donald Trump |
| Alaska | Donald Trump |
| Arizona | Joe Biden |
| Arkansas | Donald Trump |
| California | Joe Biden |
| Colorado | Joe Biden |
| Connecticut | Joe Biden |
| Delaware | Joe Biden |
| Florida | Donald Trump |
| Georgia | Joe Biden |
| Hawaii | Joe Biden |
| Idaho | Donald Trump |
| Illinois | Joe Biden |
| Indiana | Donald Trump |
| Iowa | Donald Trump |
| Kansas | Donald Trump |
| Kentucky | Donald Trump |
| Lousiana | Donald Trump |
| Maine | Joe Biden |
| Maine-1 | Joe Biden |
| Maine-2 | Donald Trump |
| Maryland | Joe Biden |
| Massachusetts | Joe Biden |
| Michigan | Joe Biden |
| Minneota | Joe Biden |
| Mississippi | Donald Trump |
| Missouri | Donald Trump |
| Montana | Donald Trump |
| Nebraska | Donald Trump |
| Nebraska-1 | Donald Trump |
| Nebraska-2 | Joe Biden |
| Nebraska-3 | Donald Trump |
| Nevada | Joe Biden |
| New Hampshire | Joe Biden |
| New Jersey | Joe Biden |
| New Mexico | Joe Biden |
| New York | Joe Biden |
| North Carolina | Donald Trump |
| North Dakota | Donald Trump |
| Ohio | Donald Trump |
| Oklahoma | Donald Trump |
| Oregon | Joe Biden |
| Pennsylvania | Joe Biden |
| Rhode Island | Joe Biden |
| South Carolina | Donald Trump |
| South Dakota | Donald Trump |
| Tennessee | Donald Trump |
| Texas | Donald Trump |
| Utah | Donald Trump |
| Vermont | Joe Biden |
| Virginia | Joe Biden |
| Washington | Joe Biden |
| West Virginia | Donald Trump |
| Wisconsin | Joe Biden |
| Wyoming | Donald Trump |
States that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania