Operation Ivan the Terrible

Operation Ivan the Terrible was a hypothetical scenario in which Russia went to war with Turkey in 1993. The scenario, designed by the Russian Army as a possible war plan, involved an invasion of eastern Turkey and the defeat of Turkish armies sent to recapture the region. The operation was calculated to end by 15 June 1995, when Turkey would hypothetically make peace with Russia.

Background
The scenario of a war between Russia and Turkey was a possibility for the Russian government, which was concerned about Turkish NATO membership following the Dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian Army sought to prepare for the possibility of a war, and they oversaw the drafting of a simulated war with Turkey.

The Russians would have around 1,000,000 soldiers stationed in the Republic of Georgia at the time, as they would have arranged for military access following their involvement in the Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence struggles. The Turks would not be mobilized at the time of the war, with their regular armies being stationed in Istanbul and on the Syrian border. The Turks had logistical support from Iran, Azerbaijan, and the United States, and the simulation believed that the USA would militarily assist Turkey in the event of a war due to Turkey's NATO membership.

War
On 24 May 1993, the Russian armies in Georgia crossed the border and into eastern Turkey, beginning to occupy the eastern quarter of the country. On 7 June, a 42,000-strong Turkish armored force was defeated at Kars with 3,419 losses in the first battle of the war, while the 236,247-strong Russian army of General Maxim G. Ostrovsky suffered 3,981 losses. In another armored battle at Van on 28 July, the Russians won a pyrrhic victory, losing 31,982 soldiers to Turkey's 8,630 losses; the Turks had the benefit of knowing their local terrain.

On 24 November 1993, the first combined arms battle of the war (involving massive numbers of both infantry and armor) occurred at Bitlis, and the Turks were mauled, with the Turkish army suffering 20% losses (42,733 losses in an army of 210,000 troops), while a 273,700-strong Russian army lost 11,383 soldiers. By February 1994, the Russians had occupied much of eastern Turkey, although the Turks held on to Hakkari. The rest of the war saw these territories be disputed between the Russian and Turkish militaries in a series of seesaw battles, with the Russians always emerging victorious in the battlefield, but occasionally having their occupations reversed by other Turkish armies. At the same time, a US nuclear bombing was predicted to occur, as the USA would ultimately join the war on Turkey's side upon the Russian invasion. Such battles could involve heavy casualties, with another battle at Van on 1 September 1994 causing 125,205 Turkish and 28,637 Russian casualties. On 8 May 1995, in the last major battle of the war, the 572,486-strong Turkish army lost 140,755 men, while the 405,107-strong Russian army lost 17,465 men.

The war would ultimately be ended by peace treaty on 15 June 1995, with the Russians installing an authoritarian government in Turkey as their war goal. The simulation therefore did not involve a drive on Istanbul, but instead a series of victories over the Turks in eastern Turkey. However, after the First Chechen War broke out that same year, the Russian analysts decided that the scenario's representation of Turkey would have broken the alliance to side with Chechnya.